So....I used to keep a LiveJournal where I would post my predictions for the year, and then grade myself one year later. Now that LiveJournal is dying and I've mostly moved to my new blog, I'd like to continue this tradition -- and I intend to do this, in part, by posting my 2011 predictions here.
Keep track of these, kids, because I will grade myself on them a year from now.
Without further ado.........
- The Iraq mission will formally end this year. Basically, I'm counting on Obama to keep the timeline that was set by his predecessor in cooperation with the Iraqi government. He has every reason to keep this timeline because he campaigned on it. Unfortunately, that doesn't mean that all the troops will come home, that the bloodshed will end, or the genocide won't continue unabated. (In fact, we can count on US troops, stationed in Kuwait, running missions into Iraq at the behest of the Iraqi government, pretty much until Iraq stabilizes or collapses.)
- The GOP Presidential race will come down to Sarah Palin and an establishment anti-Palin candidate. Palin does not poll well in comparison to other Republican "big names," but she polls well enough to be a top tier candidate, and she has a few natural consistencies (such as conservative women and the tea party). The flip side is that both the GOP establishment and a lot of their base know that Obama would destroy her in the general election, which will give rise to a serious "anybody-but-Palin" movement, with no clear leader.
- Obama will not face a serious primary challenger. A lot of liberals are explosively pissed off at the President right now, over the tax cut compromise, signs that Obama might attack Social Security, test-based teaching that works to undermine teachers unions, and a half dozen other issues. The intensity of the cynicism that I'm seeing out there is something that I used to only see in bitter Vietnam-era radicals who never moved on. The thing is, the President has already done a very effective job of bringing in his Democratic rivals of any importance (most notably Hillary Clinton), and the very successful lame duck session has blunted a lot of criticism from the Left. As such, pretty much the the most serious challenger he has for the nomination is Dennis Kucinich.
That said: if the President concedes away Social Security, as has been rumored, then his biggest obstacle to re-election sill almost certainly be a third party challenger.
- Bank of America will be biggest villain of 2011. Wikileaks has a ton of information that they're about to release on B of A, and my guess, based on what we've seen so far, is that they will reveal a deliberate campaign, coordinated from the top, to foreclose on good (non-underwater) properties, by fraud if necessary. The public will want their heads on a platter.
- There will be huge layoffs in the public sector. The Republicans have an ace in the hole this coming fiscal year: in order for the Federal government to continue deficit spending, it needs to raise the debt ceiling, which requires an act of Congress. The Republicans have the votes in the House to stop this unless they get their way. The GOP are going to spin this as the Responsible Thing. If I were the Democrats, I would point out the obvious: that the GOP didn't care about the deficit when it came time to give the rich a tax cut, that austerity harms the economy in the long run, that cutting spending will slow the recovery, and that unemployment is getting worse because of continual public sector layoffs. Thing is, I don't see the Democrats making these points, because DNC chair Tim Kaine can't craft a message to save his life. The result is going to be public sector layoffs at every level -- Federal, state, county, municipal -- as well as a massive brain drain from the public sector as more talented employees see their benefits disappear and decide to find greener pastures in the private sector.
- The DJIA will surpass 13000. (See below)
- Unemployment will remain above 8% What we have today is a bifurcated recovery. The unemployed and the elderly are getting decimated by the job market and medical costs, respectively, and they're about ready to stage an armed revolt. But the employed and the not-so-old are doing just fine -- as is reflected in consumer spending. Basically, the better off you are now, the better the recovery is treating you. While private sector hiring will continue to grow, it will be offset by massive Tea Party-driven public sector layoffs (see above) at all levels. Unfortunately, the private sector jobs will increasingly either require lots of somewhat specialized skills, or no skills at all, and so wage deflation, and with it the continued destruction of the post-WWII middle class, will continue.
- Inflation will remain below 10%. The only reason I'm posting this prediction is because there's a lot of speculation out there that Weimar Republic-style hyperinflation is on the way. Bullshit. The big danger we've been facing all along isn't hyperinflation, it's deflation, or a shrinking money supply that creates a disincentive to spend. While the Federal Reserve has been "printing money" (really just creating computer records of money), this was done because even more money was lost in a black hole when the banks lost their bets. We barely escaped deflation in 2008 and 2009, and while it's not a big risk anymore, it can still happen in 2011 if the GOP makes good on their threats to implement Greek-style austerity (see above). As such, I would frankly be very surprised if inflation in the United States rose above 5%, let alone crossed double digits. (Note: the least strict, and by no means the most accepted, definition of hyperinflation, is 26% per year over three years - that is to say, a three year period in which prices double. I am saying that prices will not double between now and Dec 29 2013.)
- The ACA (health care reform) will survive the year intact. Republicans ran on repealing this law. They might have the votes to do this in the House, but they don't have anywhere near the votes in the Senate. Nor do they have enough votes in either chamber to overcome a Presidential veto. In theory they can use the leverage of the House to do a lot of damage, but Democrats aren't going to let them do away with the popular proposals in this bill. Similarly, Republicans aren't going to let Democrats do away with unpopular proposals such as 1099 reporting, or pass any improvements to the ACA. Finally, the health insurance mandate, which is by far the most odious part of this law, is almost certain to be upheld on the appellate level. (Note: I don't expect it to reach SCOTUS in 2011. 2012, maybe.) The very worst that the GOP can do is zero out funding to implement the law -- which just means that the White House will have to find the money somewhere else.
- Auburn will win the National Championship game. Oregon -- which is, by the way, the team I'll be cheering on January 10th -- has speed, a wicked offense once you get into the secondary, and pure persistence. Auburn has all of that, plus a better close offense, sheer muscle and one hell of a quarterback. Also, Auburn is an SEC team, and the SEC is a whole different class of football. Bottom line, I would take the Auburn side of the spread.
OK, those are they. Let's see how I do!