Saturday I went over the 2016 Repubican Presidential Primary Candidates, mostly by dividing them into tiers. The Democratic field is easier because it's smaller, having only five candidates of note. I don't think the rankings will surprise anyone, but here goes.
1) Hillary Clinton
Clinton has more money than anyone other than Jeb or Donald Trump, the support of the Democratic Party apparatus, and strong primary poll numbers. She also still beats all the other candidates by nine points or more in general election polls (see head-to-head numbers versus Jeb Bush Donald Trump, Scott Walker, Chris Christie, Paul Ryan, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Mike Huckabee, and Ted Cruz). That said, she used to be stronger against the Republican field, the latest Quinnipiac University poll show her losing in some swing states, and her approval ratings are down according to Gallup. In other words, her inevitability has taken a bit of a hit...but really not enough to derail her campaign. The overwhelming evidence is still that she will win in a landslide.
2) Bernie Sanders
There's a LONG drop from Hillary Clinton to long-time Socialist and up-until-recently Independent Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. His favorables are high in some early primary states, and he's surging in the polls. All of this generates a lot of buzz. Could he be the next Barack Obama? Well...not so much. His surge in the polls still has Hillary crushing him and everyone else by about 40 points. The good news for Sanders fans is that he's dragged the debate to the left...which has, I think, forced Clinton to the left as well. Her proposal to deploy half a billion solar panels in the next decade might well be a result of this. There's also the interesting prospect that Sanders could make Democratic Socialism cool again vis-a-vie the Tumblr Left.
3) Martin O'Malley
You know you've hit Third Tier when you get to the point where most of your audience says, "Who?" O'Malley served two terms as Mayor of Baltimore and then two terms as Governor of Maryland; Maryland law forbids a Governor from serving more than two consecutive terms, so he sat out the 2014 election. Early on he entered the Presidential race with the hopes of --- again --- dragging the conversation to the Left. Unfortunately for him, the Left crystallized on Sanders, leaving O'Malley with some support from Baltimore- and DC-area fans. He'll make the debates but he won't make it to the White House. If I were him, I'd consider running against Republican incumbent Larry Hogan in 2018. The Democrats are going to need win big in state government elections in 2018 and 2020 if they want to win the redistricting fight and have a chance at the House in 2022.
4) James Webb
Ten years ago James Webb was a Netroots darling, a "Fighting Democrat" whose deep military experience, service under the Reagan administration, and fierce criticism of the Iraq war, would help lead the Democratic Party back into relevance. His 2006 Senate victory gave the Democrats control of the Senate for eight years, and many would argue that it was his victory speech --- which the media didn't realize at the time was a victory speech --- that did it. The Democratic Party owes him big. And so he's chosen to run for President. I like the guy, but let's be blunt: he's against the Iran deal, he wants to rein in the EPA, and he favors fossil fuel production over renewables. He's a Reagan Democrat in a post-Obama world. He hasn't got a prayer.
5) Lincoln Chafee
This former Republican Senator from Rhode Island turned Independent recently became a Democrat to run as Governor. Now he's running for President. Chances are, you learned this fact by reading this blog post. I like Chafee because I have a soft spot for Providence RI and because he was the only Republican Senator to vote against the Iraq fiasco, but again, he's running to Hillary's right and generally doesn't stand a chance. On the bright side, maybe we'll see him at Necronomicon Providence.
Why isn't Joe Biden on this list?
I'm not convinced Biden is actually running. When he announces --- IF he announces --- then I'll include him in the next Cattle Call.